As Arthur Keller highlights, systemic risks—those emerging from the interconnectedness of various systems—have become increasingly urgent in the face of unprecedented global challenges. He emphasizes that these risks span environmental, economic, social, and technological domains, often exacerbating one another in unpredictable ways. During our discussion, Keller explored the intricacies of these risks and shared strategies to mitigate their potentially catastrophic effects.
Understanding systemic risks
The 21st century has seen the rise of systemic risks that threaten the stability of the Earth’s key spheres: the lithosphere (Earth’s crust), hydrosphere (water systems), cryosphere (frozen regions), atmosphere (air quality), biosphere (living organisms), pedosphere (soils), and anthroposphere (human society). The increasing interdependence of these systems means that disturbances in one area can trigger global cascading effects.
- Lithosphere: The depletion of essential resources such as oil and minerals, combined with the strain of energy transitions, creates a future of scarcity. The limitations of raw materials, such as copper, which is crucial for green technologies, are compounded by environmental constraints like water shortages.
- Hydrosphere: Ocean acidification, driven by rising CO2 levels, threatens marine ecosystems, particularly coral reefs. The depletion of oxygen in oceans and premature water shortages will severely affect marine biodiversity, which many species depend on for survival.
- Cryosphere: The accelerated melting of ice, particularly in the Arctic, is surpassing scientific predictions, creating alarming consequences for sea levels and weather patterns. This rapid change demands urgent attention and adaptation strategies.
- Atmosphere: Rising CO2 concentrations, primarily from fossil fuel combustion, are challenging natural cycles and driving climate change. The necessity to decarbonize is clear, but it requires profound shifts in societal values, lifestyles, and economic models.
- Biosphere: Global biodiversity has drastically declined, with ecosystems collapsing at an alarming rate. While awareness of this issue grows, the reluctance to challenge financial interests often hinders the necessary actions to reverse this trend.
- Pedosphere: Agriculture’s industrialization is a major driver of environmental degradation. Even without climate change, the overuse of land for food production could lead to the collapse of ecosystems, exacerbating the overall environmental crisis.
- Anthroposphere: The real crisis is not ecological but human in nature. Our activities, societal structures, and consumption patterns are the root causes of these environmental challenges. Solutions require not just environmental actions but a fundamental transformation of how we live and organize society.
Key Strategies for managing systemic risks
Given the magnitude of these risks, Arthur Keller emphasizes the importance of rethinking our strategies for managing them. Here are some key strategies:
Prepare for failure
One of the most crucial realizations is that we may fail to fully resolve global challenges. Acknowledging this failure is not an excuse for inaction, but rather a call to prepare for inevitable setbacks and plan accordingly.
Rethink technological solutions
While technologies like smart cities may seem promising, they often rely on resource-intensive systems and dependencies that fail to offer resilience. Rather than relying on these vulnerable systems, we must rethink high-tech and low-tech solutions and the way we design infrastructure.
Collective resilience
Building resilience is essential. However, individual resilience is insufficient in the face of global risks. We need collective efforts to ensure that communities, industries, and governments work together to build a more sustainable future. This includes promoting shared responsibility and collaboration across cultures and borders, going beyond the ‘triangle of inaction’ in which:
- Citizens wait for political action and business commitment.
- Politicians wait for citizens’ support and business first steps.
- Businesses wait for consumers’ engagement and political support.
Leverage fear for action
Fear can be a powerful motivator for change. While we must be careful not to paralyze people with fear, it can catalyze urgent action. Providing individuals with tangible ways to contribute to solutions is key to mobilizing widespread change.
Transition to local, Circular economies
The shift toward local economies, with an emphasis on sustainability and shared resources, is crucial. This includes supporting local currencies, short supply chains, and systems of exchange that reduce dependence on global networks vulnerable to disruption.
Support innovation in resilience
Initiatives like low-tech solutions, micro-manufacturing, and circular nutrient cycles offer practical ways to adapt to resource constraints. Technologies that allow for easy repairs and sustainable practices can reduce dependency on global supply chains.
The Role of education and public awareness
To address systemic risks, we must also reconsider how we educate and engage people. Traditional education systems often prioritize workforce preparation over fostering a deep understanding of environmental and social challenges. A shift is needed towards curricula that emphasize sustainability, systems thinking, and global citizenship. Furthermore, effective communication is key to overcoming denial and building widespread support for resilience-building efforts.
Conclusion
As Arthur Keller aptly concludes, the systemic risks of the 21st century require bold, collective action. Acknowledging the scale of these challenges and preparing for failure while embracing new ways of thinking and acting can help us navigate the uncertain future ahead. It is time to focus on solutions that foster resilience, promote sustainability, and recognize the interconnectedness of all life on Earth. The key lies not in waiting for a perfect solution but in acting now, building a foundation for a more resilient and equitable world for future generations.
