How do we imagine tomorrow?

At our annual 2030 residential, Tarik Chekchak, a lead figure of the
Institute for Desirable Futures, invited us to explore how humanity has related to the
future across history—and how these lenses continue to shape the way we act today.

Three Historical Ways of Relating to the Future

• Fatality – In ancient times, the future was seen as fixed, determined by the gods or fate. Human agency had little place.
• Pride – During industrial modernity, faith in science and technology fueled the belief that we could shape the future at will.
• Uncertainty – Today, ambiguity dominates. Faced with overlapping crises, we oscillate between fear and paralysis.

The Institute for Desirable Futures encourages us to shift away from predictive futurology—which often gets stuck in guesswork—and instead embrace
present-based activation: designing from the now toward desirable futures.

Rethinking Futures: Four Scenario Types

Tarik outlined four common ways societies frame the future

• Trend-Based – Simply extending today’s trajectories into tomorrow.
• Worst-Case – Stress-testing by imagining collapse and disruption.
• Disruptive – Anchored in breakthroughs, such as the belief that “AI will solve everything.”
• Desirable – Crafted intentionally around values, justice, and long-term wellbeing.

👉 True strategic clarity cannot rest on fear. It requires courage—the courage to name and design the futures we want.

The Future Is Misrepresented

Too often, the dominant images of the future are dystopian: disaster movies, collapse narratives, and planetary boundaries framed only as threats.
While the science is sobering—

• Global biodiversity has declined by 69% since 1970.
• The average French citizen carries a 14-ton annual material footprint.
• Planetary boundaries are being exceeded through extraction, pollution, and inequality.

—feeding only despair risks disengagement. Hope and agency are equally vital if we are to mobilize.

Reconnecting with the Living

Tarik reminded us: we are not separate from nature—we are nature.

• All life shares a common ancestor.
• The Earth is materially closed: resources must circulate.
• Ecosystem services—provisioning, regulating, cultural—are not optional extras.

The shift is profound: we must move beyond the mindset of “protecting” nature, toward realizing:
“We are nature protecting itself.”

From Crisis to Metamorphosis

What if our time is not just a series of crises to be managed, but a metamorphosis—an irreversible transformation?

Even business language reflects this shift:

• From strategy to ecosystem.
• From mechanism to organism.
• From value chain to life cycle.

This evolution signals a deeper cultural desire to reconnect with the living world.

Lessons and Reflections

• Acknowledging bias – Our historical lenses restrict imagination. Meeting diverse perspectives—and learning from nature—broadens horizons.
• Fear as a starting point – Rather than paralysis, fear can spark courage and responsibility.
• Experimentation – Change doesn’t come by waiting for others. We can experiment at the edges while living within current systems.
• Pioneering shifts – Research shows if 25% of a group changes, the rest may follow. Courageous pioneers can trigger tipping points.
• Narratives matter – Instead of stories of blame or doom, we can craft stories of possibility.
  “It rains and I take the bike, living it like an adventure—let’s enjoy that ride.”

Closing Thought

The past is past. The future is unwritten. Between fatality, pride, and uncertainty lies a fourth way:
present-based activation, crafted intentionally around values, justice, and long-term wellbeing.
By reconnecting with life, cultivating courage, and experimenting with possibility, we can shift from crisis management to metamorphosis.

🌱 The future, after all, is not something that happens to us—it is something we co-create.

Taking Transformations Seriously: Reflections from Andy Stirling

As we prepare towards our 2025 Residential, let’s throw it back to our 2023 residential when we had the privilege of being accompanied by Andy Stirling, Professor of Science and Technology Policy at the University of Sussex and long-standing co-director of the STEPS Centre (Social, Technological and Environmental Pathways to Sustainability). More than his academic accolades or his role advising governments on questions of power, uncertainty, and diversity in science and technology, what stood out most was Stirling’s humility, generosity, and constant presence, setting the tone for an atmosphere of openness and conviviality throughout our days together.

What Stirling offered was not a toolkit or a roadmap to sustainability. Instead, he invited us to question the very notion of a roadmap, to challenge the dominant narratives of sustainability transitions and think critically about the pathways we’ve accepted, often without realizing how narrow they may be. His message was clear: if we are serious about transformation, we must start by taking transformation itself seriously.

What If It’s… Something Bigger Than Capitalism?

“Why is it easier to imagine the end of the world than the end of capitalism?”

This question, often cited in critical sustainability circles, was Stirling’s entry point. But rather than simply indicting capitalism as the root of today’s social and ecological crises, he took us deeper. According to his research, sustainability, understood in its full social, economic, and ecological breadth, may be so hard to achieve not just because of capitalism, but because of something older and more deeply embedded: colonial modernity.

This idea comes from the fact that societies have long been destructive — environmentally and socially — even before capitalism took form. The challenges we now associate with “sustainability” are not exclusive to capitalism, but are features of a broader human condition that has unfolded over centuries through extractive, controlling, and racialized systems of organization. Colonial modernity, as Stirling calls it, isn’t merely a historical legacy but a living structure that continues to shape how businesses, governments, and cultures operate.

At the heart of colonial modernity is a powerful idea: progress. For centuries, “progress” has functioned as a directional force, pointing toward industrialization, innovation, and expansion, but only through continued extraction, appropriation, and accumulation. Stirling does not moralize these processes; rather, he lays them out as the social facts on which the modern world is built. To achieve sustainability, then, is not simply to continue progressing in a “greener” way, but to transform our understanding of progress itself.

The Power of “No Alternative”

One of the most compelling aspects of Stirling’s argument was his dismantling of the myth that “there is no alternative.” This phrase, popularized in political discourse, has seeped into the very heart of sustainability narratives, particularly in how we talk about transitions. Too often, we ask “How much?” or “How fast?” but rarely “Why?” or “In which direction?”

For Stirling, these latter questions are essential — they help unlock alternative trajectories, revealing the plurality of ways societies might evolve. But these alternatives remain difficult to imagine or pursue because of what he calls “blinkers”: limitations in our collective vision of the future that are not natural, but curated, shaped by historical pathways and reinforced by entrenched power.

The tunnel vision that results from these blinkers reduces “progress” to technological and scientific advancement alone, reinforcing dominant systems while sidelining other possibilities. And power — political, economic, epistemic — plays a key role in keeping us on these rails.

Risk, Control, and “Organized Irresponsibility”

Modern societies, Stirling argues, have developed a deep faith in control, especially through science. Risk assessments, cost-benefit analyses, and modeling tools have become central to how decisions are made. But at what cost?

Stirling warns that such frameworks often obscure real uncertainty and ignore ambiguity. By attempting to control risk, we end up in a paradoxical state he terms “organized irresponsibility” — where benefits are privatized, and impacts are shared, often unequally.

A striking example he offered is the lack of academic consensus on the risks associated with certain energy technologies. The “science” is never as settled as we like to believe — assumptions and parameters always shape outcomes. Recognizing this, Stirling calls on us to accept uncertainty and ambiguity as part of our assessments, not as failures to be corrected but as features of real-world decision-making.

Transforming Our Imaginations

What does it mean to take transformations seriously? For Andy Stirling, it means letting go of the illusion of control, dismantling the myth of singular progress, and embracing the messy, plural, uncertain nature of social change. It means recognizing the power structures that lock us into certain paths, and bravely imagining, and enacting, others.

No single pathway will deliver “sustainability.” But by asking different questions, opening space for alternatives, and acknowledging the limits of our knowledge, we can start to shift not only what we do, but how we think about change itself.

In the end, Stirling reminded us that transformation is not only about outcomes, it’s also about process, and about the courage to see differently.

Poverty is not a simple problem; it’s a complex, multifaceted issue that goes far beyond just a lack of financial resources.

During a 2030 session in 2023, we welcomed Caroline Van der Hoeven, Coordinator at the Belgian Anti-Poverty Network (BAPN), and Christophe Quintard, Director of Studies at ABVV/FGTB. Together, we explored poverty as a process of exclusion from essential aspects of life — health, housing, education, and energy. These areas are deeply interconnected and create a web that is difficult to escape without structural change.

This makes poverty not just a social issue, but a systemic challenge that impacts economic stability, resource distribution, and environmental resilience. A society with widespread poverty lacks the capacity to adapt to change, and restricts equitable economic participation. To build a sustainable future, we must address poverty as part of the solution.

The State of Poverty in Belgium: A Snapshot of the Struggle

According to Statbel, over 2.1 million people — nearly 19% of the population — were at risk of poverty or social exclusion in 2022. Despite economic progress, Belgium has seen little to no improvement in poverty rates. Youth, in particular, face increasing vulnerability.

Caroline described poverty as being “stuck in the middle of a spider’s web,” with people caught in layers of exclusion. Breaking this web requires long-term, structural solutions — not just short-term fixes.

How Businesses Can Contribute to the Fight Against Poverty

During the session, we identified concrete ways businesses can help reduce poverty:

• 1. Incorporate Poverty into HR Policies: Go beyond wages. Offer job security, training opportunities, and analyze workforce data to support employees at risk of poverty.
• 2. Design Inclusive Customer Service: Address the digital divide by creating accessible services for those without regular internet or technology access.
• 3. Advocate for Change: Engage in policy advocacy and support anti-poverty organizations to amplify marginalized voices.
• 4. Support Long-Term Structural Solutions: Invest in projects that tackle root causes — education, healthcare, job creation.
• 5. Address the Part-Time Employment Challenge: Raise awareness of support mechanisms like AGR and provide paths to full-time employment.
• 6. Embrace the « Just Transition »: Ensure the shift to a green economy includes training and protections for vulnerable workers.

In our interconnected world, resilience is key to navigating global crises. One crucial factor in building resilience is response diversity—the variety of responses within a system to external shocks. This blog delves into key insights from a 2024 conference organized by 2030 ASBL, focusing on the importance of response diversity in the Anthropocene—an era defined by human-driven global changes.

At the heart of this discussion was Thomas Elmqvist, a professor at the Stockholm Resilience Center, who led a thought-provoking session on how different systems can withstand and adapt to global disruptions. His exploration of response diversity provided critical insights into how we can enhance our systems’ adaptability and resilience in a world increasingly shaped by human activity.

Response diversity and the anthropocene

Elmqvist introduced the concept of response diversity, a crucial element in understanding resilience. As a leading expert in natural resource management, his research highlights how diversity—whether biological, social, or economic—fosters resilience. In an era of complex and unpredictable crises, response diversity helps ensure that systems remain functional and adaptable, even in the face of severe shocks.

Framing the discussion within the context of the Anthropocene, Elmqvist emphasized the profound and lasting impacts of human activity on the Earth’s natural systems. He underscored the growing interconnectedness of global systems, which, while offering opportunities, also increases vulnerabilities. A striking example was the 2021 Suez Canal blockage, where a single event—the massive Ever Given ship getting stuck—sent ripples across industries worldwide, from agriculture to manufacturing, exposing the fragility of our hyper-connected global economy.

Modularity and diversity in resilience

One of Elmqvist’s key insights was the importance of both modularity and diversity in fostering resilience. In contrast to the more isolated and modular societies of the medieval period, today’s world is highly interconnected, with globally interdependent systems. This connectivity brings both opportunities and risks.

Understanding alpha and beta diversity

Elmqvist further broke down diversity into:

• Alpha diversity: The variety of elements within a single system or location.
• Beta diversity: The differences in diversity between locations or systems.

Modern systems often exhibit high alpha diversity but suffer from low beta diversity, which weakens adaptability and resilience.

The threat of polycrises

Another critical concept discussed was “polycrises”—distinct but interconnected crises that amplify each other’s impacts. These compounded crises often lead to effects greater than the sum of their parts. Elmqvist pointed to examples such as the interplay between climate change and geopolitical instability, notably the ongoing food and energy crises exacerbated by the war in Ukraine. He also highlighted climate-induced disasters, like the devastating fires in Greece followed by unprecedented rainfall, illustrating how crises can cascade across systems.

Invisible feedback and equity

Elmqvist also emphasized the role of invisible feedback—unseen interactions that exacerbate existing vulnerabilities. Climate change, for example, disproportionately impacts marginalized communities, deepening inequality. These hidden feedback loops influence political responses, societal movements, and economic stability, further amplifying crises.

Understanding these dynamics is essential for designing effective policies and governance strategies that prioritize resilience and equity.

Conclusion: A call for action on response diversity

Thomas Elmqvist’s insights at the conference underscored the urgent need to rethink resilience in the Anthropocene. The concept of response diversity—balanced with connectivity, modularity, and systemic resilience—provides a powerful framework for navigating today’s global challenges.

His comprehensive approach reminds us that only by embracing diversity and fostering adaptability in our systems can we hope to mitigate the far-reaching impacts of interconnected global crises.

What are your thoughts on response diversity? How do you see it playing a role in your organization or community?

In 2024, we conducted 5 case studies and hosted 4 thematic sessions exploring critical issues at the intersection of sustainability and business. Here’s a summary of our activities and insights:

Case Studies

• Carmeuse
• GIM
• Maison Dandoy
• Umicore
• Volvo Group

Thematic Sessions

• Systemic Risks Strategies
• Biodiversity, Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI), and Response Diversity
• Doing Business in a Finite World
• Geopolitics of Transitions

Engaging Questions from the Sessions

During these sessions, participants raised thought-provoking questions that highlight the complexity and urgency of the challenges businesses face today. Some of the most interesting include:

• What is the economic rationale behind the push for more cooperation and collaboration? Is it feasible within a profit-driven system?
• Given that we value companies based on profit and growth, doesn’t this hinder collaboration? Can we change the narrative, particularly in Europe or Africa?
• Given the increasing demand for battery materials, do you believe there are enough accessible resources globally to meet the needs for electric trucks in the long run? And if there is, is it a good idea to get them all?
• How do we ensure transparency and authenticity in our company’s sustainability initiatives and prevent greenwashing?
• How do we balance sustainability with financial returns?
• How do you envision growth for a best-in-class company, particularly in terms of outpacing less effective competitors? What strategies would you implement to achieve this growth, especially focusing on craftsmanship?
• As some companies reconsider their net-zero commitments due to cost, competition, and technological obstacles, can European industries remain aligned with European climate commitments? If not, what actions can be taken?

Key Takeaways

• Transformation may initially decrease resilience, but over time, it can lead to more robust systems.
• Diversity is essential for developing a holistic and sustainable model. It brings in varied perspectives and expertise that are crucial for addressing complex challenges.
• Climate change should not be used as a proxy for biodiversity loss.
• Businesses can successfully integrate environmental responsibility into their operations by shifting their focus from short-term profits to long-term sustainability and problem-solving. This shift can positively impact both the planet and their brand.

Looking Ahead

These discussions highlight the importance of fostering open dialogue and collaboration across sectors. As we look ahead to 2025, our commitment to advancing sustainable progress remains steadfast. We aim to achieve this by cultivating partnerships that enhance the effectiveness of sustainability initiatives, promoting transparency, and driving accountability while addressing the challenges ahead.

We also recognize the need to encourage businesses to adopt long-term strategies that prioritize resilience and environmental stewardship. This includes integrating sustainable practices into daily operations and developing innovative approaches that proactively respond to the evolving challenges posed by environmental damage.

Ultimately, we aspire to empower our network with actionable insights and tools, creating a future where sustainability and innovation work hand in hand. Through these efforts, we envision a collaborative ecosystem where all entities thrive, respecting and preserving the planet for future generations.

As Arthur Keller highlights, systemic risks—those emerging from the interconnectedness of various systems—have become increasingly urgent in the face of unprecedented global challenges. He emphasizes that these risks span environmental, economic, social, and technological domains, often exacerbating one another in unpredictable ways. During our discussion, Keller explored the intricacies of these risks and shared strategies to mitigate their potentially catastrophic effects.

Understanding systemic risks

The 21st century has seen the rise of systemic risks that threaten the stability of the Earth’s key spheres: the lithosphere (Earth’s crust), hydrosphere (water systems), cryosphere (frozen regions), atmosphere (air quality), biosphere (living organisms), pedosphere (soils), and anthroposphere (human society). The increasing interdependence of these systems means that disturbances in one area can trigger global cascading effects.

• Lithosphere: The depletion of essential resources such as oil and minerals, combined with the strain of energy transitions, creates a future of scarcity. The limitations of raw materials, such as copper, which is crucial for green technologies, are compounded by environmental constraints like water shortages.
• Hydrosphere: Ocean acidification, driven by rising CO2 levels, threatens marine ecosystems, particularly coral reefs. The depletion of oxygen in oceans and premature water shortages will severely affect marine biodiversity, which many species depend on for survival.
• Cryosphere: The accelerated melting of ice, particularly in the Arctic, is surpassing scientific predictions, creating alarming consequences for sea levels and weather patterns. This rapid change demands urgent attention and adaptation strategies.
• Atmosphere: Rising CO2 concentrations, primarily from fossil fuel combustion, are challenging natural cycles and driving climate change. The necessity to decarbonize is clear, but it requires profound shifts in societal values, lifestyles, and economic models.
• Biosphere: Global biodiversity has drastically declined, with ecosystems collapsing at an alarming rate. While awareness of this issue grows, the reluctance to challenge financial interests often hinders the necessary actions to reverse this trend.
• Pedosphere: Agriculture’s industrialization is a major driver of environmental degradation. Even without climate change, the overuse of land for food production could lead to the collapse of ecosystems, exacerbating the overall environmental crisis.
• Anthroposphere: The real crisis is not ecological but human in nature. Our activities, societal structures, and consumption patterns are the root causes of these environmental challenges. Solutions require not just environmental actions but a fundamental transformation of how we live and organize society.

Key Strategies for managing systemic risks

Given the magnitude of these risks, Arthur Keller emphasizes the importance of rethinking our strategies for managing them. Here are some key strategies:

Prepare for failure

One of the most crucial realizations is that we may fail to fully resolve global challenges. Acknowledging this failure is not an excuse for inaction, but rather a call to prepare for inevitable setbacks and plan accordingly.

Rethink technological solutions

While technologies like smart cities may seem promising, they often rely on resource-intensive systems and dependencies that fail to offer resilience. Rather than relying on these vulnerable systems, we must rethink high-tech and low-tech solutions and the way we design infrastructure.

Collective resilience

Building resilience is essential. However, individual resilience is insufficient in the face of global risks. We need collective efforts to ensure that communities, industries, and governments work together to build a more sustainable future. This includes promoting shared responsibility and collaboration across cultures and borders, going beyond the ‘triangle of inaction’ in which:

• Citizens wait for political action and business commitment.
• Politicians wait for citizens’ support and business first steps.
• Businesses wait for consumers’ engagement and political support.

Leverage fear for action

Fear can be a powerful motivator for change. While we must be careful not to paralyze people with fear, it can catalyze urgent action. Providing individuals with tangible ways to contribute to solutions is key to mobilizing widespread change.

Transition to local, Circular economies

The shift toward local economies, with an emphasis on sustainability and shared resources, is crucial. This includes supporting local currencies, short supply chains, and systems of exchange that reduce dependence on global networks vulnerable to disruption.

Support innovation in resilience

Initiatives like low-tech solutions, micro-manufacturing, and circular nutrient cycles offer practical ways to adapt to resource constraints. Technologies that allow for easy repairs and sustainable practices can reduce dependency on global supply chains.

The Role of education and public awareness

To address systemic risks, we must also reconsider how we educate and engage people. Traditional education systems often prioritize workforce preparation over fostering a deep understanding of environmental and social challenges. A shift is needed towards curricula that emphasize sustainability, systems thinking, and global citizenship. Furthermore, effective communication is key to overcoming denial and building widespread support for resilience-building efforts.

Conclusion

As Arthur Keller aptly concludes, the systemic risks of the 21st century require bold, collective action. Acknowledging the scale of these challenges and preparing for failure while embracing new ways of thinking and acting can help us navigate the uncertain future ahead. It is time to focus on solutions that foster resilience, promote sustainability, and recognize the interconnectedness of all life on Earth. The key lies not in waiting for a perfect solution but in acting now, building a foundation for a more resilient and equitable world for future generations.

Key Takeaways for Businesses

In an era defined by climate urgency and shifting global power dynamics, businesses have a unique role to play at the intersection of geopolitics and sustainability. Insights from the recent « Geopolitics and Sustainability » session, featuring Prof. Chukwumerije Okereke and Sébastien Treyer, offer a roadmap for navigating this complex landscape.

2. Decarbonization in Africa: Challenges and Opportunities

Africa’s journey toward sustainability is marked by both opportunity and frustration:

• Challenges: African nations face immense pressure to decarbonize but lack sufficient resources and technical support. International funding structures prioritize mitigation over adaptation, sidelining urgent local needs like climate resilience and food security.
• Opportunities: Leaders like Kenya’s President « William Ruto » advocate for positioning Africa as a hub for sustainable development, leveraging renewable energy and innovative policies to move beyond the “victim narrative.”

Insight: Businesses operating in or partnering with Africa must align with regional priorities, emphasizing equity and climate resilience over rigid global frameworks.